教育扩展效应、人口结构效应与受教育平衡程度的波动——新中国成立以来的受教育库兹涅茨曲线-清华大学教育研究

文章信息/Info

Title:: The?Fluctuation?of?Educational?Inequality?and?the Education?Expansion?and Demographic?Transition——the?Kuznets?Curve?of?Education?since?the?Founding?of New?China

Author(s):: HUANG Wei-hai CHEN Na ZHANG Xiao-ke; College?of?Public?Management,?Nanjing?Agricultural?University

Keywords:: education expansion; demographic transition; education inequality; education attainment distribution; Educational Kuznets Curve

摘要:: 中国的平均受教育程度当前已经居世界前列，教育发展的主要矛盾也从数量不足转变为不平衡不充分的问题。尽管近年研究普遍认为中国教育发展的不平衡程度持续下降，但本研究在教育代际交替假设基础上的理论推演认为，受教育不平衡程度不会彻底消失。基于对1950-2016年间全国及各省受教育不平衡程度的测量，以及对2019-2020年的预测，实证发现中国受教育平衡程度经历了快速上升和缓慢下降的库兹涅茨倒U型发展轨迹，虽然目前处于较为平衡的阶段，但受到教育扩展效应和人口结构效应的共同作用已经出现第二次拐点，开始波动上升，后续趋势值得进一步关注。

Abstract:: Since the middle of the 20th century, great progress has been made in education all over the world. The average level of educational attainment of China is now one of the highest in the world. The key contradiction of education development has been changed from the deficiency in education supply to the inequality and insufficiency. Although recent studies generally believe that the inequality in China’s education continues to decline, this article argues that, according to the theoretical deduction based on the hypothesis of intergenerational alternation of education, the inequality in China’s education as measured by the standard deviation (SD), Gini coefficient, and Theil index of the educational attainment level cannot be eliminated completely. Based on the assessment of the inequality at the national level and provincial level during 1950-2016 and the prediction of it in 2019-2020, this study reveals that the inequality in education attainment in China experienced a Kuznets inverted U type development path with a rapid increase and slow decline. Although in a more balanced phase at present, it shows a rebounding but rising trend as a result of the education expansion and demographic transition, which requires further attention.