高校扩招政策能够提高农村劳动力的大学教育收益吗？-清华大学教育研究

文章信息/Info

Title:: Could the Enrollment Expansion Policy Increase the Rate of Return on Higher Education of Rural Labor Force?

Keywords:: human capital; education human capital; rural labor force; poverty alleviation through education; higher education enrollment expansion

摘要:: 本文使用北京师范大学收入分配研究院提供的第五轮收入调查数据，利用明瑟收益函数，采用微观计量的研究方法，构建反事实选择框架，实证探讨了大学教育对非农收入影响的处理效应，研究发现：在纠正了样本选择性偏差后，农村劳动力的非农教育回报率为10.3%，高于普通最小二乘法的5.9%；条件分位数回归则揭示了非农教育回报率的异质型的收益特征，整体教育回报率随收入条件的上升而下降，大学教育回报率因对低收入群体有着更强的增收效应，因而表现出“正U型”分布曲线；利用倾向得分法则进一步考虑了个体教育选择的异质性，测得大学教育的处理效应在9.6%-10.775%之间，高于高中阶段与OLS估计值，验证了大学教育是更能够促进非农增收的教育人力资本投资形式，而普及高中教育与农村地区“免费”高中教育的进一步讨论，则是进一步发展农村高等教育的政策着力点。

Abstract:: This paper uses the CHIP2013 data provided by the Survey of Income of Residents in China and applies Mincer’s equation and econometric method as well as the framework of counterfactual selection to estimate the effect of university education on non-agricultural income. The analysis shows that the return to education of rural labor force is 10.3% after correcting the sample selection bias using Heckman’s Two-Stage-Least-Square (2SLS) model. It is higher than the Ordinal Least Square (OLS) estimate which is 5.9%. Conditional quantile regression verifies the heterogeneity in education return to non-agricultural income: the overall return to education declines as income condition rises, while the rate of return to higher education is higher for low-income groups, showing a U-curve. Using Propensity Score Matching, the paper further discusses the heterogeneity of educational choice. The estimated effect of higher education is between 9.6%～10.775%, which is higher than the high school and OLS estimates. This suggests that university education is a form of education human capital investment which increases non-agricultural incomes. The discussion of popularizing rural high school education and promote “free” high school in rural areas is the policy focus of further development of higher education in rural areas.